Previsibility of mineral dust concentrations: The CHIMERE-DUST forecast during the first AMMA experiment dry season, 2009,
MENUT Laurent, Isabelle CHIAPELLO, Cyril MOULIN
Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D07202, doi:10.1029/2008JD010523, Paper [PDF]:

Abstract

The previsibility of Northern Africa dust events is quantified using daily numerical forecast simulations for the next three days. The dust concentrations fields, modeled by CHIMERE-DUST, are first evaluate by comparisons to AERONET surface data, OMI and MSG Seviri satellite measurements. The accuracy and spread between measurements and model are discussed focussing on the first short observation period of the AMMA experiment in western Africa, with a simulation period ranging from January to March 2006. Second, the previsibility of dust is estimated by comparing model results for different leads in a forecats mode. The model skill is evaluate in term of capability to forecast (i) the surface wind speed (the key process for dust emissions), (ii) the dust emissions (depending on the wind speed as well as numerous others uncertain parameters, including threshold values on the friction velocity) and (iii) the transport of aerosols from source to remote areas (depending of horizontal transport, convection etc.). It is shown that emissions forecast can vary up to 80% (close to the sources) and that final forecasted dust concentrations and relative optical thickness do not exceed 40% and 20% in forecast variability.